1. Secondary Battery Manufacturing: Monthly Overview
- Domestic ESS Tender Revival
The Korea Power Exchange (KPX) launched its second ESS bidding round (₩1 trillion scale).
LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK On each highlight LFP expansion and safety technologies to differentiate their bids.
→ Boosts domestic capacity utilization and supports LFP line expansion. - China’s Export Controls Tighten
Beijing broadened its export restrictions from July’s LFP technology ban to cover equipment and core battery processes.
→ Accelerates non-China localization efforts across Korea, the U.S., and Europe. - Global Market Share Shifts
As of Aug 2025, K-Battery Big3 collectively held 16.8 % worldwide (-3.8 ppts YoY) but 38 % outside China.
→ Profitability pressure rises as CATL and BYD advance with low-cost LFP cells. - U.S. Operations Under IRA Scrutiny
LGES’s Georgia project faced temporary site inspections but resumed construction.
→ No material impact on client timelines; North America CAPEX continues to qualify under IRA §45X. - Competition Landscape
All three Korean firms remain in the global Top 10. However, LFP price wars are forcing them to balance volume growth with margin defense.
2. Market & Policy Updates
China’s export barriers are reshaping the LFP supply chain. Non-Chinese players are fast-tracking in-house production of cathodes and equipment.
Meanwhile, the U.S. IRA origin rules keep pushing for domestic material sourcing contracts—e.g., POSCO Future M’s anode deal in the U.S.
3. K-Battery Big3 Snapshots
LG Energy Solution
- Resumed U.S. site operations after brief inspection.
- Preparing large-scale supply for Mercedes-Benz (46-series cylindrical).
- Active in the latest KPX ESS tender.
→ Portfolio diversification and cylindrical expansion enhance margin mix.
LG Energy Solution EV Battery Masterpiece｜Supply Deals, ESS Growth & 2025 Outlook
Samsung SDI
- Advancing Gen.5 for BMW and testing Gen.6 & solid-state (ASSB) cells.
- Expanding U.S. footprint through Stellantis JV.
- Competing in ESS bids with high-density cells.
→ Bridges premium segments toward next-gen solid state.
SK On
- Began production at Ford’s BlueOvalSK Kentucky Plant 1.
- Georgia JV with Hyundai progressing on schedule.
- Participating in KPX ESS bids.
→ Scale economies build while LFP portfolio catch-up is crucial.
4. Secondary Battery Manufacturing Value-Chain Highlights
- Cathodes: LFP localization boom; high-nickel NCM retains premium edge.
- Anodes: POSCO Future M’s U.S. order marks geographic diversification.
- Electrolyte & Separator: North American local production gains momentum.
- Equipment: Chinese restrictions push Korean OEMs to domesticate machinery designs.
5. Technology & Product Directions
- Form Factor: 46-series cylindrical cells rising for high-performance EVs.
- Chemistry: LFP dominates cost efficiency; LMFP and high-Mn NCM bridges fill the gap.
- Solid-State: Samsung SDI and Solid Power testing continues; commercialization still 3–5 years out.
- ESS Safety: Thermal-runaway control and BMS optimization key for bidding scores.
6. Demand Landscape
- EVs: Low-cost LFP from China pressures pricing, pushing K-firms toward premium segments.
- Commercial & High-Output: Preference for high-density cylindrical/large prismatic cells.
- ESS: KPX tender drives mass LFP deployment as a stabilizer for domestic capacity.
7. Risk Register & Impact
| Risk | Description | Exposed Firms | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price War | Aggressive LFP discounting by China | All | Premium mix & IRA tax credits offset margin loss |
| Export Controls | Tech/equipment restrictions | All | Domestic R&D & IP licensing strategies |
| U.S. Operations | Labor & permit delays | LGES / SK On | Stronger local compliance teams |
| Material Volatility | Nickel, Lithium, Graphite fluctuations | All | Long-term contracts & recycling expansion |
8. Investment Checklist
- ESS contracts provide short-term utilization leverage.
- North American integration of cell + material = IRA compliance edge.
- 46-series cylindrical growth preserves ASP.
- Solid-state roadmaps add valuation optionality.
- Equipment and material localization = new supply-chain plays.
9. Kori’s Perspective
- Dual Strategy: “Cylindrical & premium NCM for profit, LFP localization for volume.”
- ESS as a Buffer: Domestic projects keep cash flow steady amid EV cyclicality.
- IRA Integration: Cell and material co-localization is now the benchmark.
- Solid-State Optionality: Early investment secures future leadership.
- Supply-Chain Security: Replace Chinese inputs with IP-controlled alternatives.
- Execution Matters: Operational discipline decides winners.
10. Q&A
Q1. Is LFP expansion a threat to K-Battery Big3?
Not necessarily. It pressures short-term margins but broadens the addressable market (ESS and mass EVs). Localized LFP production plus safety tuning can even enhance competitiveness.
Q2. What’s the biggest risk in U.S. investment?
Operational issues—labor, permits, and compliance. Korean firms need on-site governance and community engagement to stabilize projects.
Q3. When will solid-state batteries commercialize?
Pilot lines exist, but mass production likely post-2028 after hybrid (semisolid) phases prove cost viability.
11. References & Sources
- KPX ESS Tender Round 2 (Chosun Eng, Oct 2025)
- China Export Control Notices (July & Oct 2025)
- SNE Research Global Usage Report (Aug 2025)
- LGES Georgia Project Updates (Sep–Oct 2025)
- POSCO Future M U.S. Anode Contract (Oct 2025)
- Samsung SDI Gen.5/Gen.6 Roadmaps & BMW Collaboration
- Solid Power Joint Testing Announcements
- BlueOvalSK Kentucky Plant Start-up (Aug 2025)
- South Korea Financial Supervisory Service (FSS)
14. Japanese Summary
韓国の2次電池製造産業は、2025年秋に大きな転換期を迎えています。
LGエナジーソリューション・サムスンSDI・SKオンの「K-Battery Big3」は、
米国のIRA政策と中国の輸出規制の間で、LFP内製化とESS市場拡大に注力中。
特にESS入札再開により、国内の生産稼働率を高めつつ、
46系円筒セルや全固体電池の開発が加速しています。
供給網のリスクを分散し、プレミアムNCMとLFPの両立戦略が今後の鍵。
世界市場でのシェア維持には、素材国産化と北米現地生産が不可欠といえるでしょう。
（キーワード：2次電池、LFP、ESS、全固体電池、K-Battery、LG Energy Solution、Samsung SDI、SK On）
#SecondaryBattery #KBattery #LGES #SamsungSDI #SKOn #ESS #LFP #SolidState #EV #IRA
